Martinsville or Talladega: Which is true wild card?

1. Which upcoming Chase track is the bigger wild card: Martinsville or Talladega?

Joe Menzer: Talladega. Nothing is wilder as a wild card than 'Dega. But Martinsville is a close second, and that's where the double-file restarts could prove to be wildest of all in this Chase.

David Caraviello: Martinsville is a great little short track where all kinds of things can happen, but I'm not sure it's the wild card people make it out to be. As Jimmie Johnson has proven in recent years, you get out front, you can kind of control your own destiny there. Not so much the case at Talladega, which often seems downright arbitrary.

Mark Aumann: You can get wrecked through no fault of your own at either venue, but I still believe Talladega is the bigger concern for most of the teams. Usually at Martinsville, the accidents don't involve major repairs. That's not the case at 'Dega.

David Caraviello: That's true, Mark. Half the field finishes at Martinsville with some sort of damage, and you can contend there with your car all banged up given how little a role aerodynamics plays. You muss up a fender at Talladega, though, and you're running in the back the rest of the day. That's a sensitive place as far as the cars go.

Joe Menzer: Plus the thing about Martinsville is that, well, Jimmie Johnson is Mr. Martinsville. Despite whatever wildness might break out around him, he obviously knows how to steer clear of it there and no doubt will put an even higher premium on doing so this time around.

Mark Aumann: Now, having said that, it's pretty easy to get lapped at Martinsville if the car's not right, especially if you have tire problems. But it's also easier to miss danger there. At the speeds they're traveling at Talladega, you just have to point the car and hope. You just never know when -- and where -- trouble's going to happen at Talladega. Like last year, who would have guessed Roush teammates would have triggered the pileup? And don't forget Johnson and Junior getting turned by Brian Vickers a few years ago on the final lap.

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David Caraviello: Now, none of this means the racing is better at Talladega than Martinsville. That's not the case at all. It's far superior on the Virginia short track. I'm not a big fan of that Roman Colosseum style of racing they do in north Alabama.

Joe Menzer: My point about Jimmie's mastery at M-ville is that no one is making a move in the Chase standings without him encountering some kind of difficulty. And whatever problems others have there, he's usually able to steer clear of them. As you've all said, 'Dega it can happen anytime to anyone.

David Caraviello: The thing about Talladega though is that so much of it seems to hinge on pure luck. You can get shuffled from the front to the back and wind up in the Big One regardless of what you do. You're in peril every moment you're on the race track. Martinsville has its hazards, sure, but it's not that way. You can make your own luck at Martinsville. At Talladega, you're completely susceptible to the track's whims.

Joe Menzer: Thus, as I think I read somewhere the other day -- sort of giving me the Inside Line, so to speak -- this Chase is going to come down to one day at 'Dega. If J.J. gets out of there without much trouble, the last three races are just for show.

Mark Aumann: If Johnson still has a 90-point lead after Martinsville, he has much more wiggle room in case something silly happens at Talladega. That's really the key. If not, then maybe this thing is still up for grabs. But if he's got a big cushion two weeks from now, I think odds are really against anyone chasing him down.

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David Caraviello: I think he'll have much more than a 90-point lead after Martinsville. And you're right, Mark -- he's insulating himself against the Big One. And let's be honest -- given how regularly he runs up front, if Jimmie gets caught in it, several of his contenders are going to get caught in it, too.

Mark Aumann: And that's the whole thing about this format. What seems to happen to one Chase contender -- good or bad -- seems to happen to the others. With the exception of Jimmie.

Joe Menzer: Truthfully, though, I think we would all agree that given the 48's track record in Chases past, this thing really isn't "still up for grabs" even going into M-ville. Unless J.J. and the gang do something utterly stupid and totally out of character.

Mark Aumann: Well, at some point you have to start betting against the hot hand in craps. The odds are supposed to even out over time.

Joe Menzer: Ha! No wonder Mark sold everything and moved to a cabin in the woods with a 13-inch TV. He's broke from all the bad gambling decisions he's made in the past!

Mark Aumann: Well, Rome (Georgia) is only a few miles from the Alabama border. And no, it wasn't built in a day.

David Caraviello: And nothing says "casino" like ... Alabama?

Joe Menzer: According to Felix Sabates, nothing says "foreign country" like Alabama and/or Georgia.

David Caraviello: Well, hope Felix has his passport with him next week.

Mark Aumann: With apologies to Coke, everything does go better "with" Felix Sabates. (Continued)