Five guys remain in quest for '09 Cup championship

No. The Chase is not over. Why is it when Jimmie Johnson wins, everybody wants to immediately anoint him as champion? Is it so drilled into everyone's head that Johnson will be the champ that not a question of if, but when? Sorry, I still don't buy into that theory.

This week marks the halfway point in the Chase. For now, I think there is way too much racing left to give the title to anyone, talk to me in four weeks and I might believe. Why four weeks? I think the next three weeks could bring about the most change in the 2009 Chase.

Of course, you have Talladega in three weeks, the ever-present Chase wild card. Martinsville is just two weeks away and for most, that will be their biggest challenge in the Chase. But this week's race at Lowe's Motor Speedway presents it's own surprising set of challenges. It's interesting how the top tier of chasers have struggled of late at Charlotte.

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So change could be coming at the top sooner than you think. One thing is for sure, the picture will clear up within the next few weeks. If a driver can survive the next three races with a top-five each week, there's a good chance that will be your champion in 2009. Here's this week's Chase Tiering.

TIER ONE

Mark Martin (No Change)

Mark Martin continues to show that consistent top-10 finishes in this year's Chase is guaranteed to lose you about five points a race. All Martin did at Fontana was finish fourth and lose the championship lead. What kind of world are we living in? Seriously, the pace being set this year is incredible.

For this week's car, Alan Gustafson has chosen to go back to a proven winner, the car Martin won with at Michigan earlier this year and finished second with a few weeks ago at Dover. The plan is also to take this car to Texas in a few weeks. It's nice when you can count on a car like that for more than a few races in the Chase.

Normally when you talk about these top Chasers, you can see their clear advantage at each track. They rarely finish out of the top10. In fact, the last time Martin finished out of the top 10 this year was Michigan in August, seven races ago, when he ran out of fuel while running ... in the top 10.

The No. 5 team is truly hitting their stride at the right time. As we mentioned above, however, Martin is among the many that have struggled lately at Charlotte. At this track, Martin has just one top-10 finish in his last six Charlotte races and that was ninth in this race last year. Martin has always told me that Charlotte is his favorite track on the circuit and he has four wins here, but lately this track has not returned the affinity.

Jimmie Johnson (No Change)

Surely the same can't be true for his teammate Jimmie Johnson, right? After all, Lowe's Motor Speedway is "his house." Sure Johnson has been dominant in the past at LMS, but since the introduction of the new car and the repaving of the surface at Lowe's, the No. 48 team has lost a bit of their edge on their home turf.

Johnson has just one top-10 in his last four races at Charlotte, despite the fact that he led a decent portion in most of those races. Is this something that Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus are worried about? Likely not, they have consistently shown the ability to step up their game in these final 10 races.

And Johnson says his Lowe's slump is mostly because the new surface has taken away some of his secret lines over the bumps in the turns but he points out that he has learned a lot in the last few races at Lowe's and he thinks that advantage might be coming back to him. I would bet, however, that there is a little more doubt in Johnson's mind heading to Charlotte than there was last week heading to California.

Juan Montoya (No Change)

Speaking of the ability to step up your game. Juan Montoya and Brian Pattie continue to impress in the Chase. Four races down and four top-fives. If there is a type of race track that fits JPM's style, this is it. But like the other top tier of chasers, this has not been JPM's best track, he has just one career top-10 at Lowe's, eighth here this spring.

JPM however has shown the ability to produce career best results each week in the Chase with an average finish of 3.5. While Charlotte will certainly be a challenge, the race this team is truly worried about is next week at Martinsville. Not that they would look forward but no doubt the No. 42 team's very, very large hurdle will be at the Virginia half mile. "How worried are you about next week at Martinsville?" That is a question that JPM will be asked 100 times between now and next Sunday. He cannot allow the looming challenge to be a distraction.

Tony Stewart (No Change)

How about Tony Stewart? He no doubt has been successful lately at Lowe's Motor Speedway, right? Actually the answer is yes ... sort of. Much like Johnson, Stewart has led a lot of laps at Charlotte but like everybody else he has not had the finishes he would like. In his last nine races at Charlotte, Stewart has just two top-10 finishes, that dates back to 2004 to save you from doing the math.

For some reason this race track has never been Stewart's best. With his best race tracks still to come in the Chase -- Martinsville, Talladega, Texas and Phoenix -- this weekend at Charlotte may very well be Stewart's biggest challenge left in 2009. Contrary to what we have been saying for weeks, a solid top-10 for Stewart this week would be nice. This is likely not the week for Tony Stewart to gain a lot of points. (Continued)